Jan van Dijk – INTERVICT, Tilburg University – Jan.vanDijk@UvT.nl S P E E C H THE ICVS AND BEYOND: DEVELOPING ACOMPREHENSIVE SET OF CRIME INDICATORS A speech in honour of the formalisation of the Pieter van Vollenhoven Chair in Victimology at INTERVICT, the knowledge centre for victimology of Tilburg University. March 2006 Postal address: INTERVICT - Tilburg University PO Box 90153 - 5000 LE Tilburg the Netherlands Visiting address: th Montesquieu building, 9 floor Warandelaan 2 – Tilburg - NL Phone: +31 13 4663526 Fax: +31 13 4663546 E-mail: INTERVICT@uvt.nl www.intervict.nl $ ! ! # & %! &* , " ( !" # $ " % &&" &&& ' (" ) ") " " * " * " $ * * "+ % ' /( + ( " + 3 11 + + . % ' /( 5 "+ % 9 $$ 7&&&" , : + #+ + #+ + . 7 ( % $$ * ( ( 7&&&!" 3* "5 ( ' &!" % * , 8! ) ' 5 ; % " 7&&8 = % 5 $ : 0& 7&&&> . ) . . 6 + #+ & 6 - ( 3 $ ) 5 * , 0!" 12 4 $$ 7&& !" % + #+ ? ' /( 7&&9!" + . ") . 0&& &&& $ 6 $ 6 % " % 8& 5 + . @3 !" + . "6 A ? # ; 7&&& < $ !" + :3 + + . 6 + % 7&&8 % ; ' < 4 ( + 3 1> % + #+ ( ( 7&&0!" / ) ( ") ; = + . " B $ * ( ") C . ' /( 7&&9> . ( 7&&8" % !" ) * " " #* " #,& % & ) + . * !" 7 &&& ) % %)+ + ! "+ B B &&&B 8&& " ) + . D E D "% E D E " " ( % " @ F% ( $ ( ) !F * ( * + . 9 "F 7&&& 0 G $ $ % 4 " . 09G!" . % $ $ 3 3 H % % ". 3 0 G! ! $ % " + % ") 4 " ) 3 3 3 $ " , 1 " The costs of data collection was much reduced by the use of random digit dialling and CATI techniques. In recent years the increase of the proportion of mobile only users in several countries has raised concerns about the representativeness of samples limited to landline phone numbers. Results of pilot studies conducted in the framework of the ICVS and elsewhere suggest that mobile only users differ in many respects from the general population but not necessarily to the extent that results of crime victimisation surveys cannot be reliably approached through sophisticated reweigthing of landline based data. ', 0 1 % ,* %! & * ! ! * +( +, '# (- ++ ( . ** ,#!2!$ ! !$ ( 3 4 % ! ' * 4 * * " %! & 5 . ., ' # *! ( 6 Latin America Africa Asia Assault & threat Robbery Burglary Eastern-central Europe Australia North America Western Europe 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 , + . ") B ( + . "# D # E !" $ " ) % 4 4 3 % 4 * 3 H % "# 3 % "< H % 3 4 % % " @ "+ % ) . 6 7&&7!" ) H % % % . ) ' /( # 7&&0!" + . D ( "+ E "% ( "+ ( "+ 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) H 3 % B % * "% 5 ? = 3 % !"7 * " J @ 4 3 ) 3 "+ B % % 4 * , . 6 5 7&&&!" 3 % " * 3 3 % = ! ; + 6 !" ! B $ + . 4 3 " ) + . 7&&8 7&&C@7&&8 + . % 3 %!" % $ 7&&& . &%. ' /( 5 . 6 7&&9@ !" ! * , ", ") 2!" % % ( : ( 7&&8! * " + " + " B 7&&& 4: 7&&7!" ) 7&&7" ) 4 : $ 4: $ " 4: # : 8 . 4 ( 9B ' /( # 7&&C!" 4: 7&&0!" ) * 4: B ", 4: ) " B 4: C8 G 4: G ! !" ) " ) 2 " ) 4: 1"1 && &&&" 5 B ) 8B7 && &&& 7&&& 22G 0"9 C "C &&"&&&!" !" , ( * & 1 7&&7!" ) 4: " + / ") " , 7 7&&7 " ', ; & % . * 4 0<<-<<< 4 4,# ! B #. *,+ ' C * , % * ) - 7 Southern Africa Central America South America Caribbean East Europe World North America Central Asia East Africa South Asia West & Central Africa Oceania SouthEast Europe East and South East Asia West and Central Europe Near and Middle East North Africa ;<<; # ! *! ( " # +# - 4 31,5 15,8 15,5 13,5 11,7 8,2 6,8 6,7 6,6 5,0 4,1 3,4 3,3 2,7 2,5 1,1 0,8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 homicide per 100.000 : % 0& && &&& " % 3 % % " 3 ) 3 % 3 3 && &&& 5 B3 % " : !" % 4 3 % 4 % % 4 % % % 4 B4 " ) " @ 3 4 - !" + 3 " + 5 * % " 3 3 1! ( 4 * 3 # " : % = 3 7&&0!" % . !% * ' /( % !" !" ) 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7&&C! 3 , ( + H 7&&7!" B B * * / B "4 % "% $ $ " $ " $ ( "+ * B B " % $ * $ ") ( " ) * $ * * ( ( * $ 2 4 A 2 3 &7 ( " , 3 A 7&&0" , L * # 0 L$ 3$ 1 45 % 43, 2" ) ") $ 8&& $ * " ) 7&&0 2 " + * * ( $ 5+?! * 43, 6 $ ", * * =+! ; = 7&&0 ( 89 $ 2 1! + * . ' /( 7&&9!" ) ( * ") ( "+ D ( E " % B $ "+ $ B "H * $ $ L( " B * A L ": B ( A "4 ( " D B L * E $ F B B B "< " ) L ( " + A / L B A" 4 * ( A * < (+ ( * L AA "+ B 4 ) 3 , " $ * $ $ / * "% * 6 / $ " * L/ L A" ) A " , 7 $ ", * ( * " ( + * +# ; ' #& *% * % &4 * ! ' 5 .% & . F3 . % ! * 4 % " . ' 5 . % & 4 " # % - ' . % ,4! - & *$ . B % &( . !$ ! * , * #" . &, . * 4 0<<-<<< 4 4,# ! 6 . . ! * ,% (:# , . '- F! ! Average of the composite organized crime index Organized crime perception (rank) Informal sector (rank) Unsolved homicides (rank) high level corruption (rank) money laundring (rank) Oceania 33 1 1 1 2 1 West and Central Europe 35 2 2 2 4 3 North America 44 4 4 4 6 4 East and South East Asia 45 5 3 7 3 6 Central America 50 4 13 3 8 13 Near and Middle East 50 7 6 11 1 2 World 54 South Asia 54 14 8 8 7 11 North Africa 55 6 5 6 East Africa 55 12 9 Southern Africa 56 10 12 South America 58 11 SouthEast Europe 58 West & Central Africa 5 11 9 5 12 10 14 10 13 12 15 10 12 9 14 60 13 11 15 5 8 East Europe 70 17 16 14 14 16 Central Asia and Transcaucasian 70 16 13 15 Caribbean 70 9 ) 15 16 ( * " ' ( % % 15 B 4 "% ( ") B B * $ " " % ) 0!" ) $ ( $ + * ( @ ( " ) ( + + ( "' ( $ " + C "+ ( "% * $ ( ' /( 7&&9!" 4 It should also be noted that the total number of observations for indicators is somewhat smaller than for the COCI index. especially the number of observations for unsolved homicides is available for significantly fewer countries ( 62). The formula used to calculate the index takes this into account. +# > 7 #. ' 5 . & , !( : = % ? . $ # , " % ( 5 $ < 6 $ ( = ( ; 8 ' + ?%' 9 &4 * ! ' 5 . % & . F 0<< << 8A =@ 8> 8< 80 8> 80 A= ?8 A= ?? ;< ?= 8< ?= @< ?9 ?0 ?9 A@ ?@ 98 ?> =? ?> =0 ?> @; ' % , ! * %% . ' ! *% * !$ &4 * ! . F .* , % . % ! * 3 0A9 % , ! *6 A9 ' 5 . % & 4 % 4! & # '$ # " # ) * #" . ( . F * %! % ,4! $ & % . # , . 7 0 C 8 9 2 1 7& 7 2 2 & 1 2 C 9 & 0 C7 ' & C 7 7 9 C 78 7 0 C 8 C 1 2 2 9 C 7 79 9 2 9 0 7 8 0 8 87 77 9 / * + 7 0 8 7C C $ C 4 < ( 43, ?%' 7 ?$ <33= ! "% 8! $# , !( < 5 * + = ) ( < $ % % 3 + + ; , !( 6 H * ? $ ; ' ( % < + , % &4 * ! ' 5 . % & . F =8 =8 =A <> =@ A0 =; 9@ =; <? 98 ;@ 99 <= A8 >8 A9 0= AA @? A> =8 @9 ?0 >9 >9 >; 9= >< A8 ;A <9 &4 * ! ' 5 . % & . F ;> 8< ;; <? ;0 00 ;< ;0 08 8? 08 >? 0? 80 0? @0 0? >< 09 =8 0A ;? 0@ 0< 0; ?> 0; @9 0< @0 ' 5 . & % 4! 1 77 78 71 0& 00 01 C1 89 8 9C 9 1 19 & 2 & # '$ # " # ) * #" . ( %! % ,4! $ & % . # , . C 79 0 07 88 72 9 0C 81 08 89 82 18 2& & 0 5 . & % 4! 0 0 9& 7& 2 8 00 77 78 01 0& 09 & 7 08 C8 72 82 8 8 02 0 7 C9 8C 01 8 18 C 2C 20 70 C7 71 79 C 8C C 8 8 C0 C 1C & 18 11 8 1 8 C9 00 87 8 89 7 97 ' && & &7 &0 &C &8 &9 &2 &1 & & 7 0 &C &2 & &8 2 8 7 &9 1 & & C 0 & # '$ # " # ) * #" . ( %! % ,4! $ & % . # , . 1C & &7 1 2 22 7 19 1& & 0 8 1 97 81 89 98 80 9 90 82 8C 8 C C7 CC 02 C 81 C1 92 0C 99 9C 9& 8C ' ' C 17 1 7 99 9 0 1 1 2 && &7 & 4 3 $ 4 3 3 # ? % ( % + " ( " + < % % !" < = ( + *" + "= + $ + "# * - $ "H 7&&7!" 5 $ B " + % % $ 7&&7 5 $ " B ' 7&&8!" % % ? 7&&0!" + H % ": : = ? ; $ 5 $ . $ " " ) $ * ") + . ) ) $ $ K &" 8M " "!" $ " . B .* % &4 $ *" . F $ 7&&7!" ' /( # B ,## ** + / * L A" ) L L A : * A "4 ( ' + J *" ) ( " + ( / " % / L B A * F * ", 2 " ) L + L A" ) L %A A ") 2 ) L AB L3 A , B ") $ " $ "" " $ " 1 / + L A" "+ $ $ + . !" % $ $ * ") 0 C!" % B $ + . < 7&&&!" ) + * . ' /( = ( ) ) + 7&&0!" + + + . $ $ * )+ * 7&&7 * " 3 / . ' /( 7&&9!" * ( / / " 4 4 < (+ 6 6 5 $$ 7&&0!" 4 * / " $ ") + . * $ / 81 ) " " * ! * * $ !" + * / ) " * / " ( " 1 % F 78 1 / $ # $ % % $ / % # 1 / /# 3( # : $ 9 #1 $ 0 $ $ 1$ % $ 1 # # 2 $$ # 1 % 1 # $ 1 # # # 0 % 5 1 );;;4 $ ( / 5+?!" ( =# ? " " !" ( / L A" 4 "% ( ") ( * ) L A * =# ? B ( * K "2 > K 89!" * %B 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', ; 7 #. & 4 * %, !( .% & !$ . ' # B ,# % ** !$ B #. ** % , ! *- # %! ' !$ *! ! World Countries by law fullness 77.8 to 100 59.7 to 77.8 47.6 to 59.7 39.9 to 47.6 13.7 to 39.9 % $ ( $ ( * F / ( * K "02!" % * " * "+ / B ,# ** . $,& B . " # 4& " ! ) 4 < (+ 6 * * "K "9 K 81 P &"&&&!" ) 4 "K "10!" 4 "K !" 3 " ( B 6 5 ( $$ 7&&0!" % : ' 3 * "+ (30) (30) (30) (28) (33) + 0 4 ") $ ( " % * " ', $,& > , ! ( *% . " # 4& ! * !$ % &4 $ . F- '# + ##( . *" . F # B ,# 7 *! % , ! * ** . !$ World 160 140 Italy 120 Canada USA United Kingdom Germany Israel Singapore Argentina Chile Mexico HDI 100 Russia Mauritius Colombia Brazil 80 Turkmenistan Paraguay Ecuador 60 Honduras Bolivia 40 Congo 0 0 Burkina Faso 50 Jordan AzerbaijanTunisia China Indonesia South Africa India SudanCameroon Uganda Kenya Nigeria Haiti Eritrea 20 Thailand Botswana r=0.69 N=152 P<0.05 Lesotho Tanzania Ethiopia Mali Gambia, The 100 lawfullness 150 200 Western Countries 35 Norw ay 30 Canada Belgium HDI 25 Sw eden Australia Netherlands Iceland United States Sw itzerland Finland United Kingdom Austria 20 15 Italy Greece 10 Spain New Zealand Portugal Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Poland Hungary Lithuania Latvia 5 0 0 5 Denmark France Germany 10 R=0.83 N=32 P<0.05 Malta 15 20 25 30 35 Lawfullness % %#,* ) $ "< / "% " + F ( * ( " , % "< 6 ) 7&&0! 6 7&&0! "+ L A ( / "+ $ ") B ") " ) * / "4 / " , Aebi, M.F., Killias, M., Tavares, C. (2003). “Comparing Crime Rates: Confronting the ICVS, the European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics and Interpol E" + $ $ #- $ . :" 6 "+ . " 7 " 7 B02" % ( % 7&&8! = $$ >+ % # 4 A Q $ < % " % $$ , %" 1! - $ $ =/ 8 # + #+ = " 82 # " % $$ , %" O = %" 8!" D4 A . ' E >, "8 + #+ # " % $$ , %" - ( " O . ' /( ;";"5" 3 "! 0!" # # $. 2 $ # $ + #+ = "C # " % 6" H " " " 3 "! 7&&0!" $ # $ ? % $ #+ @$ &**A &** :3 + : (" < 3" O . ' /( ;" 7&&0!" D $ = E" $ $ # % . " +++ " O 7" = " ,/ " O = H" 7&&C!" : # $ 1 B # B # C% # $ . "C" " ' ) " , ( ;" " O 4 3";" 1!" D# 5 % F+ E" B = < " Hatalak O., Alvazzi del Frate, A., Zvekic, U. (2000). Surveying Crime: A Global Approach. ISTAT/UNICRI, Rome. Kangaspunta, K., Joutsen, M. & Ollus, N. (1998). Crime and CriminalJjustice in Europe and N. America 1990-1994. HEUNI, Criminal Justice Press, New York. Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. & Mastruzzi, M. (2003). Governance Matters III: Governance Indicators for 1996-2002. Policy Research Working Paper 3106. Washington, DC: World Bank. Online: http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance/pubs/govmatters3.html. Kury, H. (2001). International Comparison of Crime and Victimization: The ICVS. International Studies in Social Science, Vol. 2., De Sitter Publications, Willowdale, Canada. Lafree, G. ( 1999), A Summary and Review of Cross-National Comparative Studies of Homicide, In D. Smith and M.A. Zahn (eds), Homicide Studies: A Sourcebook of Social research, Thousand Oaks , Ca: Sage Levi, M.(2002), The Organization of Serious Crime, In: Maguire, M., Morgan, R., Reiner, R. (eds)., Oxford Handbook of Criminology, Oxford University Press, Oxford. Nieuwbeerta, P. (2002). Crime Victimization in Comparative Perspective. Results from the International Crime Victims Survey, 1989-2000. Boom Juridische uitgevers, The Hague. Shaw, M., Van Dijk, J. & Rhomberg, W. (2003). “Determining global trends in crime and justice: an overview of results from the United Nations surveys of crime trends and operations of criminal justice systems”. In Forum on Crime and Society. Vol. III, No. 1 & 2. Tranparency International ( 2003), The Coalition against corruption. Annual Report. United Kingdom: Yeomans press. United Nations (1999). Global Report on Crime and Justice. G. Newman, (ed), United Nations Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention, Centre for International Crime Prevention. Oxford University Press, New York- Oxford. Van Dijk,J.J.M. (2006/forthcoming), Crime Diagnostics; breaking the silence of problems of crime, justice and develoment across the world , Tilburg : Tilburg University/ Wolf Legal Publishers. Van Dijk, J.J.M. & A. Alvazzi del Frate (2004), Criminal Victimisation and Victim Services across the world: results and prospects of the International Crime Victims Survey. In : International Perspectives in Victimology, Vol 1, No1. Van Dijk, J.J.M., Shaw, M. & Buscaglia, E. (2002). “The TOC Convention and the Need for Comparative Research: Some Illustrations from the Work of the UN Centre for International Crime Prevention”. In: Albrecht, H-J. & Fijnaut, C. (Eds.), The Containment of Transnational Organized Crime. Comments on the UN Convention of December 2000. Freiburg: Max Planck Institut fur auslandisches und internationals Strafrecht. Van Dijk, J.J.M. & Nevala, S. ( 2002). “Intercorrelations of Crime”. In: P. Nieuwbeerta (ed), Crime Victimization in International Perspective, Jur Uitgevers, Boom. Van Dijk, J.J.M. & Kangaspunta, K. (2000). “Piecing Together the Cross-national Crime Puzzle”. In National Institute of Justice Journal. US Department of Justice. Office of Justice Programmes. National Institute of Justice. Washington DC. Van Dijk, J.J.M., R. Manchin, J. Van Kesteren ( 2006), The Burden of Crime in the EU, key findings of the EU/International Crime Victim Survey 2005, UNICRI/ Gallup/Europe, Turin (forthcoming). Van Dijk, J.J.M., Mayhew, P., Killias, M. (1990). Experiences of Crime Across the World: Key Findings from the 1989 International Crime Survey. Deventer, Kluwer Law and Taxation Publishers. Van Kesteren, J.N., Mayhew, P. & Nieuwbeerta, P. (2000). Criminal Victimisation in Seventeen Industrialized Countries: Key-findings from the 2000 International Crime Victims Survey, Onderzoek en beleid, No. 187. Ministry of Justice, WODC, The Hague. World Economic Forum. (2003). The Global Competitiveness Report 2002-2003. Oxford University Press, New York. World Economic Forum. (2004). The Global Competitiveness Report 2003-2004. Oxford University Press, New York. World Health Organization (2002). World report on Violence and Health, Geneva. Zimring, F.E. & G. Hawkins (1997), Crime is not the Problem, New York : Oxford University Press Zvekic, U. & Alvazzi del Frate, A. (1995). Criminal Victimisation in the Developing World, UNICRI Publication No. 55, Rome.