As Russian forces bolster their defences in territory they have taken in the east and south, Ukraine’s troops need more powerful weapons in the form of long-range artillery to fight back, and to keep the enemy on their toes.
The high-mobility artillery rocket system, or HIMARS, that the US has announced it is sending will have a range of about 50 miles, according to a US official, thereby doubling Ukraine’s artillery capability. Britain is expected to follow suit in the coming days by sending the GPS-guided M270B1 multiple launch rocket system, which uses a 200lb high explosive warhead to hit targets as far away as 43 miles.
In theory the rocket systems from the West will enable Ukraine to strike “at the depth” of Russian formations, pounding their logistics supplies and their command and control elements, as well as hitting troops that are “digging in” to towns and cities by building fortifications.
Ukraine began the war with artillery such as Soviet-standard howitzers with a range of only about ten miles, before the US agreed to send 90 M777 Nato-standard artillery pieces with a range of up to 25 miles depending on the shell used.
Samuel Cranny-Evans, a military analyst at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said that the longer-range artillery now being sent could be “an effective tool in countering Russia’s artillery superiority”.
However, he added that Ukraine’s success with such artillery would depend on its ability to integrate the systems with its existing military force structure and to provide timely and accurate targeting data. “Their efficacy will also depend in large part upon the munitions that the US agrees to supply,” he said.
Although the Russian BM-30 Smerch heavy multiple rocket launcher has a longer range of up to 56 miles, the system has little accuracy at its furthest range. The Russians also have the modernised 30-mile range 2S7M Malka 203mm, considered one of the most powerful systems in the world, and the 22-mile-range BM-27 Uragan rocket launcher.
Russia still has more firepower than Ukraine, but analysts say that the US rocket system is simpler to use than the majority of systems at Russia’s disposal.
• US rockets will more than double Ukraine’s artillery range
It can be reloaded in only five minutes, instead of 20 to 40 minutes, and can fire at targets using GPS co-ordinates that can be relatively easily supplied, for example by a drone. Setting up to fire takes seconds versus minutes for the Russians, said Justin Crump, a former soldier turned military analyst. “This means the best Russian systems can only fire one time for every four by the US-supplied system, which is also more accurate and longer ranged. In the arithmetic of war, and particularly artillery war, this counts a lot”, added Crump, who now works at Sibylline, a strategic risk consultancy.
Having long-range artillery — and enough munitions — will be critical if Ukraine is to take back cities captured by Russian forces. In March, western officials said that Russia would need to have its artillery positioned as close as 25 miles to Kyiv in order to fire on the capital. The Russians were unable to attack because they were not able to bring their logistic supply forward.
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Crump said that the US systems would “not be a game changer on their own” and would pose additional logistical challenges for Ukraine.
However, he said that if they are available in significant numbers, their reach and precision will “make life significantly more difficult in hitherto safe areas for Russia, helping Ukraine in its strategy of wearing down Moscow’s advances and targeting weak spots for counter attacks”.
One area where Ukraine might look to deploy the new weapons could be around the Russian-held city of Kherson, an important port on the Black Sea, which could play a decisive role in Russia’s ability to launch another invasion in future. It is considered critical terrain because it is the only area of Ukraine in which Russian forces hold ground on the west bank of the Dnipro River. According to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, Moscow is concentrating its forces on seizing the eastern city of Severodonetsk and wider Donbas, which is creating “vulnerabilities” for its troops in the Kherson oblast, where Ukrainian counteroffensives continue.
“If Russia is able to retain a strong lodgment in Kherson when fighting stops, it will be in a very strong position from which to launch a future invasion. If Ukraine regains Kherson, on the other hand, Ukraine will be in a much stronger position to defend itself against future Russian attack,” the ISW said.
It noted that while President Putin had “scraped together” all his forces and resources to take the east for “largely symbolic gains”, Ukraine had realised the strategic importance of recapturing Kherson.
Rather than commit more reserves and resources to the defence of Severodonetsk — where fierce fighting is raging — and fighting to the end, Ukrainian forces are apparently withdrawing. This has enabled the Russians to move in fairly rapidly, with officials claiming that Russia now controls at least 70 per cent of the city.
The decision to avoid matching Putin’s prioritisation of forces is “strategically sound, however painful”, the ISW said.
“Ukraine must husband its more limited resources and focus on regaining critical terrain rather than on defending ground whose control will not determine the outcome of the war or the conditions for the renewal of war.” To do so, more supplies of long-range artillery will be crucial.
